Trade war (we’re so back). Yesterday morning, as the company ran out of all the time it didn’t use to divest, TikTok (very briefly) died as it lived: purposely misinforming nearly 200 million Americans. “A law banning TikTok has been enacted in the U.S.,” the Chinese asset stated plainly in a curt post to its users announcing an immediate shutdown. Of course, no matter how often or how vigorously TikTok argues the point, or to what hysterical degree our fawning press amplifies the lie, there has never been a ban. TikTok was forced to divest from ByteDance, its Chinese parent. The Chinese government, which TikTok has repeatedly feigned independence from, refused to let the company divest. The company ran out of time, and its leadership quite cartoonishly pretended to close up shop. Whatever, we’ve beaten this one to death. Much more interesting was TikTok’s additional suggestion that Donald Trump assured the company he would reverse, or in some way unwind, Biden’s controversial decision to sign Congress’s bi-partisan divestment bill — a decision that if left unchecked would be, for America’s cracked out Zoomers, catastrophic. And by yesterday afternoon, this piece of TikTok’s farewell message appeared to be true.

Half past noon, before our incoming President Trump was even sworn into office, the company released a statement on X explicitly thanking him for “providing the necessary clarity and assurance to our service providers that they will face no penalties” for platforming the company.

And just like that, Trump brought America’s favorite Chinese spy app back to life.

What exactly did the President do here, and why? More importantly, what is he able to do? It’s frustrating that nobody in government seems to have an answer to this very basic question, and given the Democrats just went out of office adding new amendments to the Constitution via tweet, I’m starting to suspect it’s just ‘whatever the hell the President wants.’ But for the purpose of this brief analysis, we’ll table the question of whether America is still a republic, and assume there remains in this country such a thing as “law.”

Now, as to the question of why Trump decided to save TikTok, I can much more confidently speculate: Congress passed a bill that forced divestiture. President Biden signed that bill into law. The Supreme Court then upheld that law, and time for divestiture ran out. It is now illegal for TikTok to remain in operation — this is an unambiguous fact. Trump may decline to enforce the law (or, this is what we all seem to be learning in real time), but he can’t rewrite the law. Sure, TikTok is back, but Trump can now decide at any moment, and in perfect keeping with the law, to Thanos snap it out of existence. In other words, he didn’t just bring TikTok back. He brought TikTok back and took it hostage. Our country is in the middle of a multi-front trade war. On the China front, Trump just made his first move. This morning, he has quite a bit more leverage.

It’s worth briefly reflecting back on how we arrived at this point.

I first tackled the topic of TikTok’s divestiture four years ago, a couple weeks after I launched Pirate Wires. Back then, it was Trump who championed the issue with an executive order demanding ByteDance divest its U.S. operations within 90 days, while the Democrats and their friends in the press, who reflexively stood against everything Trump suggested, were almost uniformly opposed. Trump left office before divestiture took effect (and before we learned once and for all if a President has the power to simply write a memo and snuff a company out of existence). Then, Biden revoked the executive order after he took office — a savior of deranged baristas everywhere. Oh, how times have changed.

Two years later, apparently provoked by fresh intel on the dangers inherent of the app as well new reporting that indicated yup, we were for sure being spied on, Congress invited (well, summoned) TikTok’s CEO Shou Zi Chew to Washington for one of the most brutal hearings I’ve ever witnessed, or covered. At this point, it was apparent that bipartisan consensus concerning America’s threat from China was growing, and TikTok’s pinky promise that it wasn’t a CCP propaganda tool really wasn’t helped by the flood of unhinged pro-Chew propaganda that appeared on the app that full weekend. Every attempt the company made to defend itself somehow made things worse. Racism was, naturally, invoked. Targeting the company was just plain xenophobic, argued TikTok’s COO, who bizarrely came out as genderqueer as the company entered public scrutiny.

In any case, the press remained unflinching in its support for the spy app — partly because TikTok is left coded, partly because divestiture would be good for America’s tech companies, which the press reflexively hates. Entirely by mistake, regime friendly media perfectly framed the difference between China’s conception of its companies as Chinese assets, and America’s (or, the American left’s) conception of its companies as a separate fount of power challenging their government’s ability to exert control. Given the press was aligned with the state at that time, opposing power was attacked.

About a year later, in a closed-door session before Congress, the app’s inherent security threat was made more clear, which triggered immediate consensus for forced divestiture, and precipitated a vote. TikTok’s lobbyists went wild in Washington, and Trump completely changed his mind on the topic. On the slowly emerging tech right, many figures in the industry echoed Trump’s concern, wary the Biden administration would use new powers granted under the vote to force Elon to divest from X. This was all hotly debated at the time. Amidst the tech (and right wing) infighting, I noted that Jeff Yass, the Republican mega donor with billions tied up in the TikTok decision, donated to Trump, and met with him directly before Trump’s pivot. I believed the reason for Trump’s pivot was, at the time, a simple matter of money.

I’m no longer convinced.

Last week, someone close to Biden’s office told reporters TikTok’s fate was now in Trump’s hands, which the New York Times interpreted as having something to do with enforcement of TikTok’s takedown. The New York Times further noted it probably wouldn’t matter, as neither Apple or Google would want to risk platforming the app given it would technically be illegal, regardless of what Trump assured them, and he might use this as a weapon against the companies — our companies — at any time. But yesterday afternoon, when TikTok announced it was back in operation, the company seemed to confirm what the Times suspected. It’s very obvious at this point Trump made a few phone calls (Hello, Mr. Apple? I’m going to need your cooperation for a moment), and now, even while technically illegal, TikTok remains in operation.

On Truth Social, Trump shared the curious details of the apparent deal he struck with ByteDance:

I would like the United States to have a 50% ownership position in a joint venture. By doing this, we save TikTok, keep it in good hands and allow it to say up. Without U.S. approval, there is no Tik Tok. With our approval, it is worth hundreds of billions of dollars - maybe trillions.

Therefore, my initial thought is a joint venture between the current owners and/or new owners whereby the U.S. gets a 50% ownership in a joint venture set up between the U.S. and whichever purchase we so choose.

Later that night, at his inaugural rally, he implied the deal was done. But none of this really makes sense, and I don’t for a second think the story is over. In the first place, any deal in which the CCP remains in any semblance of control over American user data undermines our entire basis for forcing divestiture. In the second, it is presently — regardless of what the President says — illegal for TikTok to remain in operation. This means it could again shut down at any moment. And again: the trigger there seems to be the whim of our president.

I no longer think Trump’s decision has anything to do with Jeffrey Yass’s money. No, you can’t discount its influence. But you also can’t discount the fact that Trump no longer needs money. He’s been flooded with cash by, even more curiously, TikTok’s competitors in the American tech industry. Hmm. Why would they not hate this?

Trump doesn’t agree with the Democrats that American industry is a scary power in need of checking — at least, as long they aren’t censoring him (and they’ve all made crystal clear they’re never doing that again, naughty naughty). Trump considers our companies an asset, and he seems to consider slights against them by the trade warring nations of Europe and China as acts of provocation. Amidst TikTok’s return to life, Elon Musk, now clearly close to Trump, also pivoted. Kind of.

Elon is no longer arguing for any kind of free speech principle here, he’s arguing, as have I, and as have many throughout the industry, for trade reciprocity. It is absolutely insane and infuriating that the CCP has banned literally every major US tech company from operating in China, while their spy app has persisted here at home totally unencumbered. Do you know who this really sounds like? Trump. A man known for many things, but especially for noticing trade imbalances, and ruthlessly seeking to correct them.

Trump has every single person in this game on speed dial. My sense is his intention is not only to complicate the ownership of TikTok — and it’s still not clear why the CCP would allow this — but to open Chinese markets to US tech. Now, with TikTok back on the table but fated entirely to Trump’s morning whims, the President has a carrot and a stick. Again, he doesn’t have to “ban” anything. The app’s already operating illegally. If Xi Jinping wants to keep snooping through our porn star TikTok girlies’ messages, he has to play ball. That ball looks like Meta or X (or both) operating in China.

We’re in the middle of a trade war. We were in the middle of a trade war during Biden’s term, he just didn’t seem to know, or if he knew he didn’t care — in fact, his administration actively helped EU regulators target American companies. Trump is not Biden. Trump is sitting Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg next to him at his inauguration. He considers these companies critical national assets, and global trade a game worth playing. He’s playing to win. And he just made his first move.

—SOLANA